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Today · what changed since yesterday

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Significance-tested Deadlock win rates, updated daily. How we decide what's real

Streaks · same direction, real move, days in a row

Each day compares a rolling 7 days, so consecutive days overlap: a streak is one sustained shift, not independent proof every day.

Deadlock meta, without the hype

Deadlock stats that tell you what actually changed this week — not fake “biggest movers” hype.

Every other site headlines tiny random wiggles as news. We run the numbers and only call something a change when it's real — and we say so plainly when nothing moved. Our rule: a hero only counts as a real shift if a swing that big would happen by luck less than about 1 in 860 times. How we decide what's real →

The game, last 7 days

963,789 matches1,721,095 players36 min avg game

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This week's result · rolling 7 days vs the 7 before · 2026-10-26

24 heroes genuinely shifted in the last 7 days.

Out of 43 heroes checked across 11,458,060 matches. These are real changes, not the usual weekly wobble — each one would happen by luck less than about 1 in 860 times.

The real changes

Reading the numbers: pp / points = percentage points (52% → 54% is a 2-point rise). p = how likely the move is just luck — lower means we're surer it's real.

  • Deadman Danny

    +4.46ppp < 0.000001
    50.42% win95% CI 50.28–50.56496,675 matches4.6% pick

    Deadman Danny got clearly stronger — now winning 50.4% of its games, up about 4.5 points from last week (46.0% → 50.4%). Over 496,675 matches a swing this big happens by chance essentially never — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Mina

    −1.67ppp < 0.000001
    44.33% win95% CI 44.17–44.49371,972 matches3.4% pick

    Mina got clearly weaker — now winning 44.3% of its games, down about 1.7 points from last week (46.0% → 44.3%). Over 371,972 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Violet

    +1.46ppp < 0.000001
    51.59% win95% CI 51.46–51.73506,186 matches4.7% pick

    Violet got clearly stronger — now winning 51.6% of its games, up about 1.5 points from last week (50.1% → 51.6%). Over 506,186 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Rem

    −1.35ppp < 0.000001
    44.99% win95% CI 44.81–45.17289,992 matches2.7% pick

    Rem got clearly weaker — now winning 45.0% of its games, down about 1.3 points from last week (46.3% → 45.0%). Over 289,992 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Rat King

    −0.96ppp < 0.000001
    55.81% win95% CI 55.68–55.94532,520 matches4.9% pick

    Rat King got clearly weaker — now winning 55.8% of its games, down about 1.0 points from last week (56.8% → 55.8%). Over 532,520 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

Show the other 19 real changes ↓

  • Haze

    −1.02ppp < 0.000001
    52.66% win95% CI 52.51–52.81426,197 matches3.9% pick

    Haze got clearly weaker — now winning 52.7% of its games, down about 1.0 points from last week (53.7% → 52.7%). Over 426,197 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Mo & Krill

    +1.53ppp < 0.000001
    51.17% win95% CI 50.94–51.40181,633 matches1.7% pick

    Mo & Krill got clearly stronger — now winning 51.2% of its games, up about 1.5 points from last week (49.6% → 51.2%). Over 181,633 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Abrams

    +1.27ppp < 0.000001
    52.13% win95% CI 51.93–52.32257,043 matches2.4% pick

    Abrams got clearly stronger — now winning 52.1% of its games, up about 1.3 points from last week (50.9% → 52.1%). Over 257,043 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Billy

    +1.21ppp < 0.000001
    48.51% win95% CI 48.32–48.69274,174 matches2.5% pick

    Billy got clearly stronger — now winning 48.5% of its games, up about 1.2 points from last week (47.3% → 48.5%). Over 274,174 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Paige

    −0.99ppp < 0.000001
    55.10% win95% CI 54.91–55.29267,814 matches2.5% pick

    Paige got clearly weaker — now winning 55.1% of its games, down about 1.0 points from last week (56.1% → 55.1%). Over 267,814 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Baba

    −1.23ppp < 0.000001
    53.68% win95% CI 53.42–53.94143,683 matches1.3% pick

    Baba got clearly weaker — now winning 53.7% of its games, down about 1.2 points from last week (54.9% → 53.7%). Over 143,683 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Seven

    −0.91ppp < 0.000001
    54.01% win95% CI 53.84–54.18315,312 matches2.9% pick

    Seven got clearly weaker — now winning 54.0% of its games, down about 0.9 points from last week (54.9% → 54.0%). Over 315,312 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Vindicta

    −0.92ppp < 0.000001
    48.49% win95% CI 48.31–48.68282,620 matches2.6% pick

    Vindicta got clearly weaker — now winning 48.5% of its games, down about 0.9 points from last week (49.4% → 48.5%). Over 282,620 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Lash

    −0.91ppp < 0.000001
    50.47% win95% CI 50.29–50.65291,891 matches2.7% pick

    Lash got clearly weaker — now winning 50.5% of its games, down about 0.9 points from last week (51.4% → 50.5%). Over 291,891 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Holliday

    −1.08ppp < 0.000001
    46.22% win95% CI 45.98–46.46171,487 matches1.6% pick

    Holliday got clearly weaker — now winning 46.2% of its games, down about 1.1 points from last week (47.3% → 46.2%). Over 171,487 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Solomon

    −0.90ppp < 0.000001
    45.92% win95% CI 45.69–46.15181,361 matches1.7% pick

    Solomon got clearly weaker — now winning 45.9% of its games, down about 0.9 points from last week (46.8% → 45.9%). Over 181,361 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Paradox

    −0.93ppp < 0.000001
    45.47% win95% CI 45.27–45.68225,135 matches2.1% pick

    Paradox got clearly weaker — now winning 45.5% of its games, down about 0.9 points from last week (46.4% → 45.5%). Over 225,135 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • The Doorman

    −1.04ppp < 0.000001
    45.25% win95% CI 44.99–45.52135,068 matches1.2% pick

    The Doorman got clearly weaker — now winning 45.3% of its games, down about 1.0 points from last week (46.3% → 45.3%). Over 135,068 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Grey Talon

    −1.00ppp < 0.000001
    46.40% win95% CI 46.14–46.65146,944 matches1.4% pick

    Grey Talon got clearly weaker — now winning 46.4% of its games, down about 1.0 points from last week (47.4% → 46.4%). Over 146,944 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Ivy

    −0.87ppp < 0.000001
    52.38% win95% CI 52.15–52.62176,344 matches1.6% pick

    Ivy got clearly weaker — now winning 52.4% of its games, down about 0.9 points from last week (53.3% → 52.4%). Over 176,344 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Venator

    −0.58ppp < 0.000001
    47.04% win95% CI 46.88–47.20376,897 matches3.5% pick

    Venator got clearly weaker — now winning 47.0% of its games, down about 0.6 points from last week (47.6% → 47.0%). Over 376,897 matches a swing this big happens by chance less than 1 in a million — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Kelvin

    −0.94ppp = 2.5e-6
    53.77% win95% CI 53.48–54.05118,707 matches1.1% pick

    Kelvin got clearly weaker — now winning 53.8% of its games, down about 0.9 points from last week (54.7% → 53.8%). Over 118,707 matches a swing this big happens by chance about 1 in 403,460 — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Celeste

    −0.57ppp = 6.6e-6
    48.47% win95% CI 48.30–48.65314,073 matches2.9% pick

    Celeste got clearly weaker — now winning 48.5% of its games, down about 0.6 points from last week (49.0% → 48.5%). Over 314,073 matches a swing this big happens by chance about 1 in 150,910 — a real change, not the usual wobble.

  • Warden

    +0.78ppp = 5.8e-4
    47.31% win95% CI 47.01–47.61108,132 matches1.0% pick

    Warden got clearly stronger — now winning 47.3% of its games, up about 0.8 points from last week (46.5% → 47.3%). Over 108,132 matches a swing this big happens by chance about 1 in 1,734 — a real change, not the usual wobble.

Moves that look big but aren't

Sorted the way a "today's biggest movers" widget sorts: by size, ignoring whether the sample can tell them apart from zero. This is the same list, with the p-values left in.

  • Shiv+0.45ppnoisep = 0.0022

    Looks like a +0.45pp headline, but it isn't news. Over 234,814 matches a swing this big turns up by chance about 1 in 460 — and we look at every hero each week, so wobbles like this show up on their own.

  • Lady Geist−0.39ppnoisep = 0.0124

    Looks like a −0.39pp headline, but it isn't news. Over 207,713 matches a swing this big turns up by chance about 1 in 81 — and we look at every hero each week, so wobbles like this show up on their own.

  • McGinnis−0.38ppnoisep = 0.0733

    Looks like a −0.38pp headline, but it isn't news. Over 106,708 matches a swing this big turns up by chance about 1 in 14 — and we look at every hero each week, so wobbles like this show up on their own.

  • Drifter−0.36ppnoisep = 0.0033

    Looks like a −0.36pp headline, but it isn't news. Over 334,085 matches a swing this big turns up by chance about 1 in 303 — and we look at every hero each week, so wobbles like this show up on their own.

  • Viscous−0.33ppnoisep = 0.1133

    Looks like a −0.33pp headline, but it isn't news. Over 108,269 matches a swing this big turns up by chance about 1 in 9 — and we look at every hero each week, so wobbles like this show up on their own.

Method

Window
7d vs 7d
Heroes tested
43
Matches
11,458,060
Threshold
1.2e-3 (0.05 / 43)

Two-proportion z-test per hero, Bonferroni-corrected for testing 43 of them at once. Heroes under 500 matches in either window are excluded — their intervals are too wide to say anything with. Data refreshes hourly.